Voter frustration over skewed polls that the mainstream media are relying upon to project a false impression that President Obama is running away with the election has prompted the birth of a new website – Unskewedpolls.com – where people can go to get a better idea of the mood of the electorate about the upcoming presidential election.
The problem is that news organizations who are hungry for an Obama win are relying on polls that either over-sample Democrats or use 2008 “turnout models” which are based upon the assumption that the various demographic groups will turn out in the same numbers as they did in 2008 – a model that even the most optimistic Obama fans say just won’t happen this time.
The reason why the media wants to project the idea that the president is winning is that by doing so they can depress voter turnout. Everyone knows that this election will be based on turnout and the easiest way to convince people to stay home is to make them believe the outcome of the race is inevitable and their vote won’t matter.
However, one glance at the results of UnskewedPolls.com polling will come as a shock to almost everyone because it is so contrary to what is being widely reported. The president is not leading, nor does he have even a modest lead. Relying on properly balanced party and turnout models, Governor Mitt Romney has had a commanding lead of anywhere from three to eleven points throughout the month of September!
UnskewedPolls.com reflects the Rasmussen models which were determined to be the most accurate in 2008. In the latest polls, they found that a record number of Americans – 37.6% – identify themselves as Republicans, which is the largest number ever recorded by Rasmussen. This means that accurate turnout models should be weighted more toward Republican than Democrat.
PJ Media warns that even though these unskewed polls are more accurate, they should also be “taken with a grain of salt.”
” . . . (W)hat it should tell us is that even if the polls are being heavily weighted to Obama, Romney’s still essentially tied,” writes PJ’s Charlie Martin. “Any difference in Romney’s direction in real turnout from the pollster’s assumptions would bring Romney into a lead.”
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